Could The Japanese Prime Minister's Far-Right Connections Be A Problem For America?
Will Japanese ultranationalism help or harm U.S-Japan relations?
The deep post-WWII ties between the U.S and Japan have proven to be one of the strongest American diplomatic relationships in the modern day, and a powerful counterweight to Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. But a growing frustration with U.S involvement in Japanese politics is beginning to demonstrate that such ties may not have been unbreakable at all. Arguably, one of the groups leading this shift is Nippon Kaigi.
Nippon Kaigi, meaning “Japan Conference,” is a far-right ultranationalist lobbying group that is considered to be one of the most powerful. Of all the politicians to maintain membership in such a group, the most significant is Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Though Japan maintains democratic freedom of association, and Japanese nationalism is ingrained in the nation’s recent history, such an extreme association could prove problematic for relations with the U.S.
Despite the pro-American foundation of Japan’s current conservative establishment, the previous premiership of now-deceased Shinzo Abe (also a member of Nippon Kaigi) began a shift toward “strategic autonomy” that is being carried on by Takaichi, one of his closest protegès. Both politicians led the moderate right-wing Liberal Democratic Party, but Takaichi’s connection to the even more extreme Nippon Kaigi begs the question: Will Takaichi’s ultranationalism and dedication to Japanese autonomy lead to a decline in relations with the U.S?
After all, the pro-American establishment in Japan was built by Americans themselves after the former fell to the latter in WWII (and lived under American military occupation for nearly seven years). Japanese ultranationalism is mechanically incompatible with the current establishment, and though Nippon Kaigi is not explicitly anti-American (it would be organizational suicide to be so), the natural consequence of their ideology is structural reform to the constitution and a reversal of the pacifist nature of Japanese defense. It would strike a blow to Washington’s power base and would allow a window of opportunity for China to evade Japanese defenses should a conflict over Taiwan break out.
Takaichi’s own policies have already begun to reflect such a shift. Her administration has shifted defense spending to 2% of the GDP and is actively working to transform the Self-Defense Forces into a fully-fledged military. Recent reports also indicate that Japan is constructing a new domestic intelligence agency to centralize intelligence sharing and further protect local supply chains. All signs point to the exact autonomy that Nippon Kaigi wishes Japan to regain, and the Takaichi administration will only accelerate this change.
The Isolationist Perspective: This shift is nothing but positive. Japanese relations with America are virtually unbreakable in the face of Chinese aggression, which both nations wish to counter. Additionally, should Tokyo consolidate greater control over its defense and security, it would take a burden off of the United States and allow it to focus on domestic affairs. In sum, there is an argument to be heard that greater Japanese autonomy could prove to be beneficial for both the American economy and military-industrial complex.
The Interventionist Perspective: Japanese “strategic autonomy” serves not just to improve their own self-determination, but also isolates the U.S in the Indo-Pacific. With nations like India and South Korea (both important opposition to China) also pursuing similar strategic autonomy policies, a lack of direct U.S involvement in deterrence policies could prove to be problematic if a conflict ever broke out. Washington’s role in shutting down such a conflict and maintaining primacy in the Indo-Pacific would diminish in the face of numerous “autonomous actors,” and previous American military dominance would be slightly reduced to diplomatic garden-tending.
So, could Sanae Takaichi’s Nippon Kaigi membership signal a future decline in U.S-Japan relations? At the moment, it’s unlikely. A decline in American dominance is sure to occur, but the relationship between the two Western-aligned nations is very unlikely to falter as long as China maintains its own opposition to the Global North. The American-Japanese alliance seemingly will not fall anytime soon, and though Takaichi hopes to achieve Japanese military independence, Washington will retain numerous opportunities to reap economic benefits from their growing self-determination.